Crystal Ball Gazing - Short Term Future of IE
Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:05 am
Hi All,
As the current uncertainty caused to the current human malware plaguing the globe - I wanted to make some claims and see if it stands up to general scrutiny of the ISR forum. Feel free to make counter claims to the comments made below - just try and keep it civil.
(Claim 1) Student numbers will be affected: Between February and May - many schools are sending out bills for the 2020/21 school year. I've heard rumblings that numbers will be stable for some schools to an absolute route in others. Let's just say there is a lot of flux. I'm already aware of staff in European schools who have had their contract cancelled in Europe for the 2020/21 school year.
(Claim 2) Expat student based schools will be affected most: As countries close borders and the slow (most likely temporary) breakdown of the global production chain will significantly affect the number of expat families living overseas. As such - many of the schools which have a high expat student population will be significantly affected. Schools with a largely local population will be more stable if families can continue to pay the bills. Schools in China, the ME and countries such as Thailand with a local population will be less affected.
(Claim 3) Darwinian thinning of the international education heard: In locations which have a large number of international schools such as Dubai, HK, Beijing, Singapore, Shanghai etc will have a huge thinning of the heard. For example - WAB and ISB in Beijing will probably have stable numbers as students who leave these schools are replaced by students from Tier 2/3 schools. As such - the lower rung of schools who focus mainly on the expat population will potentially be hit with a double whammy.
(Claim 4) Pay and conditions will take a long term hit: In the last year or so I started to see an improvement in some Chinese school payment offerings - but in general many schools were keeping wages stagnant or reducing conditions. With student numbers potentially dropping - many schools will not be in a financial position to expand pay and condition. Apart from Western Europe where pay and conditions are difficult to change - many schools will gradually reduce pay and conditions either to remain solvent or to recoup profits lost
(Claim 5) Being a non-profit will not increase likelihood of not folding: There are lots of private schools out there that are out just to make money and see parents as cash cows - but the financials is what really matters. As such - there might be a large number of smaller non-profit schools in lesser locations which fold due to less students.
As the current uncertainty caused to the current human malware plaguing the globe - I wanted to make some claims and see if it stands up to general scrutiny of the ISR forum. Feel free to make counter claims to the comments made below - just try and keep it civil.
(Claim 1) Student numbers will be affected: Between February and May - many schools are sending out bills for the 2020/21 school year. I've heard rumblings that numbers will be stable for some schools to an absolute route in others. Let's just say there is a lot of flux. I'm already aware of staff in European schools who have had their contract cancelled in Europe for the 2020/21 school year.
(Claim 2) Expat student based schools will be affected most: As countries close borders and the slow (most likely temporary) breakdown of the global production chain will significantly affect the number of expat families living overseas. As such - many of the schools which have a high expat student population will be significantly affected. Schools with a largely local population will be more stable if families can continue to pay the bills. Schools in China, the ME and countries such as Thailand with a local population will be less affected.
(Claim 3) Darwinian thinning of the international education heard: In locations which have a large number of international schools such as Dubai, HK, Beijing, Singapore, Shanghai etc will have a huge thinning of the heard. For example - WAB and ISB in Beijing will probably have stable numbers as students who leave these schools are replaced by students from Tier 2/3 schools. As such - the lower rung of schools who focus mainly on the expat population will potentially be hit with a double whammy.
(Claim 4) Pay and conditions will take a long term hit: In the last year or so I started to see an improvement in some Chinese school payment offerings - but in general many schools were keeping wages stagnant or reducing conditions. With student numbers potentially dropping - many schools will not be in a financial position to expand pay and condition. Apart from Western Europe where pay and conditions are difficult to change - many schools will gradually reduce pay and conditions either to remain solvent or to recoup profits lost
(Claim 5) Being a non-profit will not increase likelihood of not folding: There are lots of private schools out there that are out just to make money and see parents as cash cows - but the financials is what really matters. As such - there might be a large number of smaller non-profit schools in lesser locations which fold due to less students.