Life in Armania

Illiane_Blues
Posts: 201
Joined: Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:56 pm

Re: Reply

Post by Illiane_Blues »

PsyGuy wrote:
> @Illiane_Blues
>
> No, you rote "I am pretty sure that everybody" you didnt write
> "I am guessing that everybody", sure means, well that youre sure.
> There is no such state position of pretty sure just as there is no
> "kinda/sorta/mostly pregnant".
>
> Those arent mistakes. This is speaking, there is no phonetic difference
> between those terms.


'Being pretty sure' means you are fairly confident but not 100% that what follows is correct (let's say 80-90%). It's still an educated guess however based on interacting with people my whole life, hence the 'pretty'.
Just as you can be pretty sure you're pregnant, having gone without a period for 7 weeks and throwing up, but haven't seen the result of a pregnancy test yet.
And even if it wasn't a guess, aren't YOU always saying that because someone writes it here, it is automatically therefore just their personal opinion and not stated as a fact?

This is not speaking, we're writing and reading here. That's why it's getting noticed.

PsyGuy
Posts: 9405
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2011 9:51 am
Location: Northern Europe

Reply

Post by PsyGuy »

@Illiane_Blues

No, thats what it means in the dictionary in your head. Whats educated about guessing, educated guess is just as oxymoronic as "random pattern".
No you cant be pretty sure your pregnant, you either are or you arent, you either know or your guessing. Pregnancy tests are not 100% accurate.

No, I dont write that.

No, this is speaking, just as when Im texting or DMing someone Im talking to them not writing to them.

Heliotrope
Posts: 686
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 1:48 am

Re: Reply

Post by Heliotrope »

PsyGuy wrote:
> Whats educated
> about guessing, educated guess is just as oxymoronic as "random
> pattern".

Actually, an 'educated guess' is a very, very standard expression. It's a guess based on knowledge and experience and therefore likely to be correct, although still not presented as fact.


> No you cant be pretty sure your pregnant, you either are or you arent, you
> either know or your guessing. Pregnancy tests are not 100% accurate.

I think @Iliane means is that you can have a lot of clues that you're pregnant before the doctor confirms it. Before he does, you CAN be pretty sure you're pregnant because those clues, such as the not having your period, morning sickness, perhaps weight gain, and some other signs that I would have to censor.
If all of those occur, you will be pretty sure that you're pregnant, but you're not 100% sure yet because the doctor hasn't confirmed it yet. The guess is likely to be correct, but has to be confirmed still.
So yes, you either are or aren't pregnant, but if you don't know yet which of the two it is, you can still be pretty sure that it's one or the other, based on a number of indicators/experiences.


> No, I dont write that.

Uhm, I have to agree with @Iliane, you have done so when it was said (by me and many others) that you often present your opinions as facts, and that was your attempt at a rebuttal.


> No, this is speaking, just as when Im texting or DMing someone Im talking
> to them not writing to them.

Speaking is when no one would hear the difference. Hear, I mean here, I however can spot the difference between 'your' and 'you're', since I'm reading it, and not listening to it.

PsyGuy
Posts: 9405
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2011 9:51 am
Location: Northern Europe

Reply

Post by PsyGuy »

@Heliotrope

No, its a guess , adding educated to it doesnt make it a better guess, not does it provide any value in terms of accuracy or validity.

Doctors can and have miss Dx pregnancy. All of those clues can just as likely be something else. Confidence is not a substitute for knowing, confidence in a guess doesnt make it a better or good guess, its still a guess. Having all of those indicators doesnt make one sure or any other degree of sure, no more than having a lot of confidence or being "pretty sure" that beating the drum causes the rain.

I have never presented my opinions as facts. Your (and others) position that I have is not self authenticating.

We disagree.

Heliotrope
Posts: 686
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 1:48 am

Re: Reply

Post by Heliotrope »

PsyGuy wrote:
> No, its a guess , adding educated to it doesnt make it a better guess, not
> does it provide any value in terms of accuracy or validity.

Look it up in the dictionary.
Some guesses are better than others, because the person guessing has more knowledge on the subject, or has experience with the matter at hand. Someone who went to medical school would be better at guessing about medical issues, or someone who has walked a certain route before might on average be better at guessing whether to turn left or right when walking it some years later.
Unfortunately, nowadays groups like anti-vaxxers and climate change deniers agree with you that all guesses are worth the same.


> All of those clues can just as
> likely be something else. Confidence is not a substitute for knowing,
> confidence in a guess doesnt make it a better or good guess, its still a
> guess.
> Having all of those indicators doesnt make one sure or any other
> degree of sure, no more than having a lot of confidence or being
> "pretty sure" that beating the drum causes the rain.

If there are two groups of 100 women. All women are quite similar in most respects, but the women in group A all throw up in the morning, have missed their periods for a few weeks, have weight gain, and all women in group B show none of these symptoms. Nobody has gone to the doctor about a possibly pregnancy yet.
Which group is likely to have more pregnant women in it?

Confidence matters if that confidence is based on having relevant experience or knowing relevant information. If a doctor is fairly confident about a certain mole being worth examining, I would be worried.


> I have never presented my opinions as facts.

That wasn't what my comment was about. It was about how you responded to those accusations (you said something along the lines of that because you made the comments, it was therefore automatically merely your personal opinion and not presented as a fact, despite the phrasing and how others perceive the comment).

Heliotrope
Posts: 686
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 1:48 am

Re: Life in Armania

Post by Heliotrope »

Those are my thoughts on life in Armenia.

Actually, I read the only review on ISR about an international school in Armenia (QSI Yerevan) to see if there's anything that might help you, but it says nothing about Armenian students.

Doctor
Posts: 98
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:28 am

Re: Life in Armania

Post by Doctor »

Anyway the job fell through.
What I meant was are they well behaved or hard to manage; are they hard working students or lazy; things like that.

Heliotrope
Posts: 686
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 1:48 am

Re: Life in Armania

Post by Heliotrope »

Doctor wrote:
> Anyway the job fell through.
> What I meant was are they well behaved or hard to manage; are they hard
> working students or lazy; things like that.


That's unfortunate.
Although from what I've read about Yerevan, you're not missing out on a great city.

PsyGuy
Posts: 9405
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2011 9:51 am
Location: Northern Europe

Reply

Post by PsyGuy »

@Heliotrope

I did look it up. No some guesses are NOT better than others, just as there arent some random patterns that are more or less random or more or less a pattern than others.
No, someone ho went to medical school would not be better at guessing than a lay individual, both guesses are guesses.

Group A could have all contracted the same viral infection, could have eaten the same or different food and have developed food poisoning. They could all have been exposed to the same environmental contaminate. Those would be better prognosis than all of them are pregnant at the same time.
Both groups are equally unlikely to be pregnant.

Confidence is ego, confidence doesnt matter.

Yes, it as and as Ive stated before Im not responsible for the interpretations of others.

@Doctor

I would concur with @Heliotrope, youre not missing anything.

Heliotrope
Posts: 686
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 1:48 am

Re: Reply

Post by Heliotrope »

PsyGuy wrote:
> No some guesses are NOT better than others, just as there
> arent some random patterns that are more or less random or more or less a
> pattern than others.
> No, someone ho went to medical school would not be better at guessing than
> a lay individual, both guesses are guesses.

Yes, of course some guesses are better than others.
I'll make it even easier to understand: two test subjects (A & B) are asked to guess someone's (C) age.
A is blindfolded, B is not and can see C.
Whose guess, A or B, is likely to be closer to the actual age?
Or if you want it even simpler: they are told C's age is either 40 or 50, and they have to guess which it is.
And to make it more scientific, let's repeat this experiment 100 times with different people forming the A-B pairs.
They would still be guessing, but one guess (B) will be better than the other (A).


> Group A could have all contracted the same viral infection, could have
> eaten the same or different food and have developed food poisoning. They
> could all have been exposed to the same environmental contaminate. Those
> would be better prognosis than all of them are pregnant at the same time.
> Both groups are equally unlikely to be pregnant.

Wow, you're grasping at straws! Which viral infection causes throwing up in the morning AND missing your periods for a few weeks AND weight gain? I think you just invented a new ..
Furthermore, randomization was implied, but I guess it wasn't explicit enough for you. Well, assume that that they are randomly chosen from countries around the world.
I think it would be obvious to everyone that the group of puking, big-bellied non-menstruating women will have more pregnant women amongst them.


> Confidence is ego, confidence doesnt matter.

Not always. Confidence can come from knowing that you are capable.
A surgeon would be more confident about the outcome of him/her doing open heart surgery than a Mathematics teacher would be if (s)he were plucked from the classroom and were handed a scalpel.


> Yes, it as and as Ive stated before Im not responsible for the
> interpretations of others.

Of course you're not, since we're not on this forum to help others, so why would you care how people interpret things?

PsyGuy
Posts: 9405
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2011 9:51 am
Location: Northern Europe

Reply

Post by PsyGuy »

@Heliotrope

No, there is no some guesses are better than others. We disagree.
I dont grasp at straws.
Thats not true, your confusing confidence and competence. The maths IT may very well be more confident than the surgeon. Thinking you can Indiana Jones your way through something doesnt mean youre actually capable of doing so. We disagree.
I dont care about things outside my control, such as the interpretations of others. We disagree.

Heliotrope
Posts: 686
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 1:48 am

Re: Reply

Post by Heliotrope »

PsyGuy wrote:
> @Heliotrope
>
> No, there is no some guesses are better than others. We disagree.
> I dont grasp at straws.

If you're saying the test subjects without blindfolds in the example above on average won't guess an age closer to the actual age, then we do disagree, and you would be wrong.


> Thats not true, your confusing confidence and competence. The maths IT may
> very well be more confident than the surgeon. Thinking you can Indiana
> Jones your way through something doesnt mean youre actually capable of
> doing so. We disagree.

Yes, there might be the odd Maths teacher that will be more confident, but on average the surgeons will be more confident than the teachers.


> I dont care about things outside my control, such as the interpretations of
> others.

You do have some control over how people interpret what you write, simply by thinking about how the average person will interpret a certain text, and what phrasing might be confusing.

PsyGuy
Posts: 9405
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2011 9:51 am
Location: Northern Europe

Reply

Post by PsyGuy »

@Heliotrope

Yes, because thats how guessing works, and we disagree mainly because youre wrong.
Thats a guess, one I dont agree with.
No, I dont have a wire or a little string, or switch, or dial that allows me to control the interpretations of others.

Heliotrope
Posts: 686
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 1:48 am

Re: Reply

Post by Heliotrope »

Haha!

So you're saying people wearing blindfolds will be just as close when guessing someone's age as people without a blindfold?

And you're saying surgeon's won't be more confident about operating on someone than someone who did not go to medical school?


And yes, you do have some control. It's called phrasing. How you write/describe something influences how easy it will be for an average reader to understand what you're trying to convey.

PsyGuy
Posts: 9405
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2011 9:51 am
Location: Northern Europe

Reply

Post by PsyGuy »

@Heliotrope

They may be
A surgeon may be less confident than someone who didnt go to med school.
No I dont, only data matters, we disagree.

Post Reply