Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you answer?

whynot
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by whynot »

Here's a bullshit economist's view from a scientist:

There's lots of talk about supply and demand, and of course this is the governing factor as far as demand (hiring) is concerned. The numbers ARE in favour of demand. But from the supply side, quality is the emotional factor that is involved, and not always recognised from the demand side. Every (*ahem, almost every*) international teacher believes they are quality and should demand a premium price. As in any product, the consumers get the ultimate say (whether rightly or wrongly) but the retailers (the hirers) decide the choice of products available to the consumer. There's a whole host of geo-emotional factors in play here.
PsyGuy
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Response

Post by PsyGuy »

I let this discussion run a while to see what came up, since my position is deeper than the others. First I concur with a number of ana1itical points offered by prior contributors. There are issues of operational definition, what is IE, what is an IT. @Thames Pirate addresses a fundamental factor and quality of this issue. The other is what i consider an over elementary critique of supple and demand side micro economic theory. Its not wrong but its a theory that only describes a market, with the assumption that IE is a market and that responds to market influences and factors, and not just aspects of a market. Im going to address three parts of a conceptual model. Im going to touch on the supply demand theory, but feel its already been addressed and well understood, so moving on I have three parts to an economic model.

First, Building on the position of previous contributors we have an issue of definitions, and there isnt a good answer. The International School Consultancy (ISC) data is bunk, the 8257 ISs is an arbitrary figure based on what they decided to operationally define as an IS. There arent 8257 ISs there are 8257 organizations that they consider/define to be an IS. I like to use the Twix, -; is it candy with a cookie center or a really decadent cookie with caramel and chocolate coatings. Anyone can take a position and construct an operational definition that would include or exclude the Twix in either category of cookie or candy, but it doesnt make it true or a fact in declaring an operational definition.
No one knows (and that includes ISC) how many ISs there are because no agency or organization has an authoritative definition of what is an IS. They have an opinion and a position of what one is, but thats their arbitrary opinion.
It does as @Thames Pirate discusses create a continuum that has evolved from discreet categories within IE. This is the first issue because it wasnt that long a go that we did have categorical and discreet definitions of IE. Historically, recruitment was done very hands on, advertising placed in newspapers with recruiters who essentially did the hiring, interviewing and vetting for a handful of essentially what was embassy ISs. Compared to foreign Unis that were recruiting for ETs to teach English to a handful of students mostly medical schools. Those two markets did not overlap, you werent going from one to the other.
Over time these discreet categories of IE expanded and evolved. An IE market based on embassy ISs and an ESOL market at a specialized Uni level. Like any market that thrives it has to grow. Most educators recognize that K-12/KS education molds to fit the needs of either vocational needs or Uni demands, and the demand for ESOL instruction grew down to secondary edu. Historically a local student would do a local regional 1st degree and then do a masters (MBA) overseas, now were seeing the trend in host nation students going abroad for 1st degrees. This necessitated that IE grow and hybridize with host nationals DE. Those ET Uni instructors found themselves in various secondary DSs that were affiliated with host nation Unis. This growth spread to distinct secondary and later primary DSs. There is still a lot of disagreement of where an EAP and EP programs begin and end.
As they grew they polarized, and thats what we are seeing now. The first tier IS have seen some growth, mostly in unserved regions but their numbers are very stable to the growth being seen in third tier IS, is far greater and significant than that in first tier. First tier ISs generally dont budge, and its very difficult to compete at those levels. We are seeing an immense amount of growth in ISs that are primarily independent/private DSs that choose or fit some definition of "international" and so choose to call themselves an IS. This has created dilution of the classical definitions that describe historical IE (embassy ISs).
Continuing with the historical factor as @SJ has discussed business has changed. Fewer multi nationals are sending families overseas for expat posts, its just two costly but whats changed is a combination of both technology improvements that allow for virtual collaboration, but as more host nationals study and are educated in the west it has created a local labor pool. Multi nationals can simply hire locally as opposed to sending an expat to a foreign office. Which leads to my second model factor

Global Public Goods: To be a global public good such goods, should meet three criteria:
1) Non-rivalrous, 2) non-excludable 3) Global availability.
At no time in modern edu has the concept of "teacher" and "teaching" as a profession become so diluted. Historically you wanted to be a DT you went to university (specifically a "normal" or teachers college) and got a degree or other Uni qualification and then registered with a regulatory authority (which could have been the Uni). After spending time in DE and not getting married the opportunity of IE had appeal (historically ITs were single upon entering IE). There was clear delineation of what was and what was not a teacher. That doesnt exist anymore, anyone can be a teacher (look at UT) and there is a large and growing sphere of IE where anyone with a white face and pulse will do. This is where we see the difference between ETs and ITs collude. bringing me to my third part of my model.

Product Proliferation: What defines and describes IE and an IS has undergone an increasing number of iterations such that the margins between IE, DE, and EE is inclusive. IE has assimilated everything from international academies in DE to western independent DSs to expat focused ISs. Its no longer the exportation of a western DS thats conceptually scooped from its site and deposited abroad. Its a GCSE test center that offers an adapted school leaving qualification by adding an "I" to the front of its name and now you have an IGCSE and a group of offices and classrooms that prepare the student for that program experience. Its no longer a single certificate or diploma, its proliferation of qualifications and programs and the DTs/ITs that followed and the infrastructure that supports it. Its not a profession anymore its a market, a system of human resources that provide a service they are trained to provide following a script of policy to deliver content within an organization. Maybe it was always that, this is what it is now.

That $12K IS in Bahrain is not looking for an IT they are looking for an ET with a maths background. My other issue with the ISC is that we know exactly where the ITs are going to come from, they are going to come from the same pool of labor that the corporate world pulls from. DTs/ITs will be trained for the job. In 20 years IE is going to shrink, because it will once again undergo change in definition, the problem now isnt with the growth its with a lack of vocabulary to describe our observations.
Walter
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by Walter »

Postby PsyGuy » Sun Mar 12, 2017 2:02 am

"I let this discussion run a while to see what came up, since my position is deeper than the others."

Priceless, Dave!
Thames Pirate
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by Thames Pirate »

Way to go, PsyGuy! Rehash everyone's points, throw in a few economic terms to make it sound like your thoughts are "deeper" even though it still just boils down to supply and demand, and provide some googled terms. But he deigned to let the discussion go on so that others can do the original thinking while you have time for some frantic googling. Classic!

FWIW, the points are correct. The rest of us already made them, just more succinctly. But PsyGuy isn't wrong here.
blinky
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by blinky »

Thames Pirate:

"It all boils down to supply and demand." - Wow, Milton Friedman would be proud. Dave actually did add to the thread - something you haven't, other than create drama. Dave, at least, has tried to engage with the question through a positive economic framework: with a description of the market in an - way with data and numbers. He then has tried to make a prediction based on this data. You, on the other hand, keep adding your own value judgements to your opinions, instead of looking at data, make up your own definitions, and are using the thread to instigate arguments with people you have grievances with. I can imagine what it's like working with you.

Again, here are are the questions: Why are the IT salaries going down? What will this market be in twenty years? Economists, (it goes without saying, that this answer will come with data) can you answer?

And here is a simple explanation of why you are wasting our time. Read the following definitions:


Off of Wikipedia for you:


NORMATIVE ECONOMICS (as opposed to positive economics) is a part of economics that expresses value or normative judgments about economic fairness or what the outcome of the economy or goals of public policy ought to be. Normative economic statements are opinion based, so they cannot be proved or disproved.

POSITIVE ECONOMICS (as opposed to normative economics) is the branch of economics that concerns the description and explanation of economic phenomena.[1] It focuses on facts and cause-and-effect behavioral relationships and includes the development and testing of economics theories.[2] An earlier term was value-free (German: wertfrei) economics

Positive economics as science, concerns - of economic behavior.[3] A standard theoretical statement of positive economics as operationally meaningful theorems is in Paul Samuelson's Foundations of Economic - (1947). Positive economics as such avoids economic value judgements. For example, a positive economic theory might describe how money supply growth affects inflation, but it does not provide any instruction on what policy ought to be followed.


The question was clearly asked for the latter -, as most economic - is.

Here is a play by play of how you have bumbled through the thread:

First, you bungled up the question with your own value judgements of "entitled teachers", and then went on to pontificate on your teaching philosophy and lifestyle preferences. Second, when called on your impractical philosophy, you went on to brag about your financial planner husband being the reason why you are not one of these "entitled teachers" who cares about money. Third, you bumbled your way through an - of the market with your own definitions of what is and what isn't an International teacher and what is and what isn't a good teacher. Lastly, you attacked Dave (you clearly don't like and have a problem with) who did try to use data and make predictions with the data in an objective way.


You've had conflicts with nearly all of the posters on this thread. There is a common denominator here. Do you see it?
Thames Pirate
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by Thames Pirate »

He used terms, but not in any way that demonstrates deeper understanding of them. But hey, I answered the question, and if you don't like me, that is your right. Feel free to ignore.

Salaries are going down because they can find someone to do the job for the lower salary. This trend will continue until they can no longer do so. You ask for predictions, but everyone knows that ten economists will give twenty opinions when asked for predictions. We have discussed the factors involved, but ultimately the simple answer is that if a school can fill the job with its current salary offerings, then they will offer the same or less until some other factor pushes back. We can discuss those factors all we want (apparently when I do it, it's offensive), but at the end of the day, the deciding factor is supply and demand.
senator
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by senator »

Thames Pirate is right when she says schools are finding people to work for lower salary and benefit packages - she is living proof of that, since she only teaches for the love of it, unlike the rest of us bloodless mercenaries.

Then she has the absolute gall to mention her financial planner husband - which, by the way, could mean someone with the education and training of a real estate salesman.

So, what came first, the chicken or the egg. Did school enrollments drop because of the world economy, forcing them to lower the value of packages or did schools finally realize that there are plenty of pseudo-teachers who can fake it and are willing to work for peanuts - like Thames Pirate (the willing to work for peanuts part, I have no idea whether or not she can teach her way out of a paper bag - though I'm sure she will soon tell us how amazing she is in that respect). I do know anecdotally that the quality and experience of teachers looking to work in IE has dropped over even the last 10 - 15 years. Too many dudes and dudettes with tatoos and dreadlocks coming to work in shorts and flip flops.

Remember that during the depression when there was a glut of workers and not many jobs, jobs went to the guy who would be willing to work for less - actually, this happened throughout world history. And now it's just happening in our world of teaching.

Truthfully, I now advise any of my students who are interested in teaching to think long and hard - about 20 seconds - then choose another career path that will at the very least afford them a good lifestyle.

Bloodless mercenary that I am.
PsyGuy
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Discussion

Post by PsyGuy »

@Thames Pirates position that everything "boils down" to supply and demand economics is akin to a carpenter with only a hammer in their tool box, thus all problems are seen as nails. In which case all of economics can be taught in less than a day.

@Thames Pirate

No, it doesnt all boil down to supply demand economics. Its deeper, more complex, with varying nuance. Im sure you have one friend (maybe your husband) you will cite that of course agrees with you.

@senator

The chicken, actual life supersedes potential life. A chicken is a chicken, an egg is a potential chicken.

@Walter

Your welcome
Thames Pirate
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by Thames Pirate »

Cost is absolutely about supply and demand. The other factors simply shift the supply and demand curves.

Senator, I think you missed my entire point (not to mention the part where I said I don't work for peanuts). Either that or you are intentionally misrepresenting it in order to attack me personally. Either way, you are attributing views and points to me that I never made.
PsyGuy
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Reply

Post by PsyGuy »

@Thames Pirate

Supply and demand is but one element of "cost", again supply and demand is the only tool (hammer) you have, so the issue of cost is of course another nail.
blinky
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by blinky »

Thames Pirate,

this isn't a popularity contest and it's not about liking someone or disliking someone. As subscribers to this website, we should try to help each other with the best information we can offer. Why would we pay to banter back and forth and trade insults when we can do this for free anywhere on the internet?

My problem is how you have somehow made this thread about you, and how you continue to maintain that you have expertise in the subject, when you clearly do not.

I do not know much about Economics (I admit this), but I know examining our changing industry means looking at the complex interplay of teachers, schools, recruitment agencies, teacher's colleges, Western economies, Eastern economies, the growing prevalence of technology and internet, world military power, the lingua francas of today and tomorrow, the changing status of the profession, teacher's unions, international health care, retirement plans, globalization, nationalism, the ESL market, diplomatic relations, Brexit, the EU, inflation in Venezuela, currency wars, work visa requirements, trade agreements, tax free status of for-profit schools, funding for non-profit schools, political stability, labor laws, legal systems, the Trump presidency and, yes, Economic principles.

I think this is an important subject, as this will affect us all greatly. It is worth examining. Obviously, none of us can predict markets 100 percent, but we can make more informed decisions based on current conditions.
nathan61
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by nathan61 »

@blinky

It is said that economists have predicted 11 of the last 7 economic crises. It doesn't matter how much data you have, the world is unpredictable, and it is a common fallacy to think markets will continue to behave the same ways they have in the past. Experts also have a poor track record for predicting the hot employment fields of the future. If it were that easy then we would all encourage our children to go into some easy to access field where they can live the good life.

As for data, there are literally thousands of economists pouring over mountains of data all the time. You can read well-researched articles and books all day if you want to go deeper into the data side. You are not going to get that on an internet forum. The whole global economy, cultural preferences, demographic trends etc is involved in your question, so maybe you are expecting a very complex answer. But what everyone has observed is that today there are more talented teachers competing for the same number of "good jobs." That is the kind of information that you will only find on a specialized forum like this.

And if any of us could predict future markets with accuracy we would already be very wealthy.
blinky
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by blinky »

Nathan,

good answer from a business teacher - "Economists can't predict markets, so why would we talk about it here? Go read a magazine or the internet" Are you seriously a business teacher? What the _____ is the point of these forums, unless we can learn something?

What is a forum? The word comes from Latin and essentially means a place to have debates and discussions. You're telling me that a teacher's forum is not a place to talk about the education industry and make economic predictions and examine the current market based on economic principles?

Are you for real? This has to be Thames Pirate's husband or relative, or even Thames Pirate. Are you going to try and sell me mutual funds now?

If I am missing something here and this is, in fact, a forum faux pas to want discuss our industry in-depth, can someone else chime in? I'll own it if someone explains to me why. I really will. Social conventions exist for a reason, for the most part. But for now, I'm flabbergasted.

For now, I maintain your comment is moronic, Nathan. If someone wants to explain where I am wrong or what I am missing, then - again - I'll gladly own it. I don't mean to sound like a ____ here, but I'm baffled.

Anyone want to add to this? I'd like to hear other opinions on forum etiquette.
nathan61
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by nathan61 »

Blinky, you are asking for an in depth economic -, and then chastising people for not answering your questions with charts and graphs. I am merely pointing out that it is unlikely that someone would go to all that trouble. Did you check out that Economist feature I mentioned in an earlier reply to your post? That is a good place to start if you want some data and some easy to digest economics.
PsyGuy
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Reply

Post by PsyGuy »

@nathan61

No, how much data you have is pretty important. Just because its not perfect or have 1.00 reliability or validity doesnt make it worthless. There are a lot of observations and state functions that have a high degree of predictability, not perfect but very strong. Our predictive economic models are pretty reliable when looking at short track predictability, its long term extrapolation where predictability falls. Doesnt make it worthless.

We have problems predicting the hot employment occupations because 1) Those models need to be stable over a long period of time. They are really good at what will be hot and in demand next year. 2) The models cant correct for affective variables that account for final state changes. You say EC DTs are in hot demand, then a bunch of EC DTs enter the market and in year 3 there isnt a demand anymore. The model is valid for that time frame.

There is no such thing as a well written predictive book, by the time its published its already three years out of date.
Actually, you can find forums that discuss exactly that depth of data, this just isnt one of those forums.

I strongly disagree with the claim there are more highly talented DTs, more DTs but trained to lower standards. Its one of the core factors for the decreasing time in DT attrition.
Again, we have an issue of what defines a "good job".

Your citation was Forbes, which is about as academic a journal as Popular Psychology. Theres nothing in depth in regards to data or predictability in that piece.

@blinky

I understand your plight. I often, enough, write incredibly long treatises on various topics on the forums. Some of them practical, and some of them highly esoteric. The issue of your inquiry while worthy of discussion (and thats what forums are for, discussing and defending positions and claims, which sometimes get bloody) is that the answer, the complete answer is someones grant, thesis, or dissertation. Those questions, of the type you asked, are either solved anecdotally with weak models, but models that are good enough (from the observers POV), or someone spends a whole lot of coin for a stronger model, and that kind of coin just isnt easy to come by, for a model that at best is valid for a few years. Some of the biggest problems is definitions and how you go about collecting appropriate data. Its a massive project, you would rightly need a major supporter to fund that kind of research, and right now no one thinks its worth it. Even then, doing so would quickly lead to the realization that you are chasing the tails of the curve.
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