Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you answer?

nathan61
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by nathan61 »

Psyguy...
I certainly did not say data is worthless. Quite the opposite. I said you would not find it on this forum, as nobody is going to take the time to write a research paper in response to a completely unanswerable question like: "is IT still a good career?"

I certainly welcome any data, as I enjoy reading economist predictions of the future. I also cited a feature in the Economist magazine (not Forbes), because it is good reading on this subject. The OP is obviously not a subscriber to the AEA journal or any publication that is "serious" by your standards.

blinky
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by blinky »

Nathan,


I wasn't chastising anyone for their answers, other than TP who was quick to respond to the question with the tired, sanctimonious, "I don't teach for money and can't believe other people do" schtick.

I thought your original response to my post was useful when you mentioned the influence of DT's and disposable incomes in the states. I wasn't asking for graphs and bars at all -just some - and observations- not judgements. I've had conversations with people on this topic and always found it fascinating how many variables there are at play. You commented at the beginning that you thought it was a great post because it relates to all of us, and now you think it's a waste of time and a burden to address. Whatever dude. If you want to get butt hurt and change your opinion because I offended you, I don't care. It just shows what kind of person you are. I stand by science over bias and judgement.

We got a lot of interesting responses here, and I'm sure people got something out of it. I know I did. I don't think it's too much to talk about our industry, especially when it pertains to all of us. We should all do some homework on our industry. It would be irresponsible for me as a father, if I did not.

Thanks for the recommendation for the Economist magazine. I've never heard of that. Great thinking.

@Dave:

As much as I've disagreed with you in the past and accused you of being deranged, I do appreciate the effort you put in here. You don't take things too personally and you keep trucking on with responses. Thank you. I've learned that studying our market is a very big, elusive job. I'll look up those journals you are referring to. Econ is a great way to see the world.

Keep it honest, Dave.

Cheers,

nathan61
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by nathan61 »

No offense meant Binky...I was merely answering your questions. You obviously don't agree with my answers....but as PsyGuy also said, economists have not had success answering your second question.

I enjoyed this article the other day, and I thought it might add some fuel to the fire, since multinationals play a large role in many of our schools.

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/ ... eat-global

From Binky:
"Again, here are are the questions: Why are the IT salaries going down? What will this market be in twenty years? Economists, (it goes without saying, that this answer will come with data) can you answer?

And here is a simple explanation of why you are wasting our time."

Thames Pirate
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by Thames Pirate »

Blinky,

I think you fundamentally misunderstood the point I was making, which led you to believe I was being sanctimonious and subsequently dismiss everything I said. Allow me to try again, as it's possible my delivery was at fault.

The reason I went into IT was never to make big bucks. Years ago, when there were fewer ISs, they offered great packages to lure the best they could away from their DSs (notice I didn't say the best teachers, just the best they could get). The job was lucrative. Then word got out about IT. Some teachers heard it was lucrative, so they signed up. Many more signed up for the myriad non-financial reasons out there (saviour complex, adventure, see the world, whatever). These teachers were always willing and able to take jobs that suited their personal goals (which is why they take the Bahrain job at 12K). So things for the "not in it for the money" crowd have not changed. There are good jobs and bad jobs out there, and we are picky based on our personal requirements for moving abroad.

Meanwhile, those who figured international teaching was lucrative were surprised when their salaries didn't match the established international schools like ASIJ or ISB. They were being picky based on the money, not realising that the established schools tend not to hire mercenaries with little experience abroad. So those folks never consider a package less than their baseline (being picky based on their personal requirements, just that theirs are financially high and often unrealistic), then talk about how pay has gone down when in fact, it doesn't seem to have actually gone down. The field is changing because those mercenaries can be replaced with the former category--the adventurers, etc.--meaning schools that would have hired mercenaries in the past just to get a body can in fact now offer a lot less to get that body. Those folks are being edged out. For them, it isn't a career anymore.

By the way, if you are expecting economists to hang out on a teacher forum, you might wait for a long time. You can get econ teachers (possibly ones with experience as economists, but probably not) and people with backgrounds or undergrad degrees in economics, business etc. This is, after all, a teacher forum.

I really wasn't trying to be judgmental, just sharing an observation. It seems to have really bothered you. I am sorry, even if I do stand by what I said. Also, you won't get simple answers to complex questions on an internet forum.

joe30
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by joe30 »

It's still not that bad. Average American earns $50,000. Probably $30,000 after he's paid his taxes and $25,000 after he's paid for some accomodation. You'll be on more than $25,000 tax free+accom in the vast majority of schools out there, and so will be doing better than the average American, who also has higher cost of living.

It's not a top tier career. It's not a bottom tier career. It's a decent career for those who want to get out of their home country (the big hitters like law and banking...it's much harder to do with those unless you're a senior exec). It also doesn't have high barriers to entry (the traditional big payers have higher academic requirements, and often a longer degree lengths too - i.e. medicine takes 6 years to qualify, teacher training is 3 for a BA). If you're an average sort of dude working average sort of jobs (like most people) and want to work abroad, then IE is a good move for you. If you're in the front office of Goldman Sachs making $200,000 a year it's a bad move, but if you were that guy then you wouldn't need me to tell you that.

Nomads
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by Nomads »

Blinky,

As a recruiter with access to salary information of many other schools, my sense is the established "Tier 1" schools have made modest salary increases over the past few years. There continues to be growth from for profit schools, which is many, but not all, cases offer the lowest salaries they can to increase the profit margin. Competition for students in major cities is increasing, which is moderating the amount the established schools can increase tuition and thereby increase salaries.

PsyGuy
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Discussion

Post by PsyGuy »

@nathan61

You can absolutely find data on this forum. The Economist is againt just another magazine, its not a journal of scholarly research.

@joe30

All very good points, though your tax is way off. A US DT with $50K in salary would first have a personal exemption of $4050 and then a standard deduction of $6300, plus the school supplies deduction of $200 is $10,550 from $50K is $39,450. That puts you in the 25% tax bracket for the income over $37,650 which is 25% of $1800 which is $450. Add that to the previous bracket (15%) cap tax of $5,183.75 and the total tax paid is $5633.75, which of a $50K salary is about 11% and closer to USD$44K not $30K, and that was with a very simple tax scheme of deductions for a single DT.
Using your $5K for accommodations and youd have $39K for an annual salary which is significantly better then your $25K and better than the average (USD$30K) youd find in IE, which means youd need at the very least a good tier 2 IS and more likely a tier 1 IS before you arent taking a pay cut, and that $50K US DT salary is average for a 1st year intern class DT who is at the bottom of the salary scale.

Otherwise I agree, if you arent a senior exec or in a very niched area of corporate business you arent traveling on an expat package overseas, and the barrier to entry as an IT is much much lower than the corporate professions. if your that guy making USD$200K banker coin than you already know that IE would be a bad move.

@blinky

As a follow up to the previous discussion regarding the JET(Japan Exchange Teaching) program. In 1987 the program began with 1000 ETs then rose steadily to its height of 6237 ETs in 2002 at about a rate of increase of 500 ETs/year. Then it began falling at about the same rate of 250 ETs a year until about 2011 where it dropped to about 4250 ETs. Its been increasing at about the same rate of 200 ETs a year to its current value of 5000 ETs. Why those changes? Originally the JET program was the only practical way into JP for a Uni graduate at that time. In 2002 ESOL availability and recruiting expanded, it was now a lot easier and faster to find an ET appointment without going through all the hoops of JET. Then the credit/housing market tanked and crashed and ET became a fall back career for a lot of people who found themselves unemployed and not really employable.

The take away from this was three conclusions:
1) IE is likely somewhere on that curve
2) Its a lot easier too explain the last 5 years than it is to predict the next 5 years.
3) There isnt any coin in predicting the growth of IT for the next 5 years at the cost of such a study that would have such a short shelf life. No one wants to pay for it. Its a lot easier and cheaper to explain than predict.

nathan61
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by nathan61 »

PsyGuy...

It is not realistic to just compare take home salary to decide if teachers are taking a pay cut. In Washington DC and San Francisco where I spend my summers it is virtually impossible to save a single penny or afford to travel as a teacher.

PsyGuy
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Reply

Post by PsyGuy »

@nathan61

Im not comparing any particular salary, Im comparing averages, the average salary of a DT in the US that you could find in a metropolitan city compared to the average IT salary. There are going to be points around the mean and outliers in the tails.
Im not making any claims of housing costs or cost of living, Im simply using @Joe30s data from their post:
"Probably $30,000 after he's paid his taxes and $25,000 after he's paid for some accommodation" the difference between $30K and $25K is $5K.

I agree living in SF and DC is very costly, its also not near the average.

shadowjack
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by shadowjack »

PG - you also don't take into account all the pension and copay deductions that teachers face. There is more money than that coming off the check.

PsyGuy
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by PsyGuy »

@SJ

I did not, I kept my ana1ysis to the parameters @joe30 discussed in their post.
Discussing pension and retirement schemes would have magnified the complexity with vastly differing variables based on the scenario. Too many different DE pension and retirement schemes and too broad of variability in IE from Asian ISs that give you nothing save for maybe a bonus, to WE ISs that have vastly higher "taxes" (pension contributions) but provide superior benefits. It would be as easy to find comparisons that are nearly identical as it would be to find vastly divergent comparisons.

joe30
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by joe30 »

While I'm no expert on the US tax system, I'd be somewhat surprised if the takehome is $39k from a $50k salary.

I consider all 'deductions' to be dead money, with no differentiation between any of them. Thus in the UK, I consider tax to be 40% (with an initial 10k GBP exemption), based on 20% income tax, 11% national insurance, and 9% student loan deductions. Where the money goes is irrelevant to me, it's all money I'm not seeing in my paycheck.

Thus the 'tax' in the US might only be $11k on $50k, but there's surely other crap that needs to be paid out? Student loans? Social security? Money paid out for the strange insurance healthcare system used in America? Getting only $30k out of $50k would be in line with many other Western countries.

Amusing User Name
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by Amusing User Name »

@ Psyguy

"The Economist is just another magazine." One might as well argue that 'the golden rule' is just another axiom or that to live 'the good life' is just one of the many possible aspirations of a right thinking mind. De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum, is all well and good as far as it goes, but come on Dave; The Economist represents all that is right and proper in this world where the phrase "alternative fact" can be uttered with a straight face.

PsyGuy
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Reply

Post by PsyGuy »

@Joe30

Take home salary would be $44K on a $50K salary, the $39K is after the allowance you cited for accommodation. It would probably be higher since it only accounts for the standard exemption and standard deductions as well as the educator expense deduction. You can find the guidance here:
http://www.irs.com/articles/2016-federa ... deductions
http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc458.html
The math is pretty simple, so you may well be surprised. The total tax isn't $11K its 11% about $5633.75.

Not everyone has student loans, but any loan like any bill is after take home. Many DTs do not pay social security as they receive state pensions which they contribute to as well as their employer. The percentage varies. However using social security the individual contribution is 6.2% and the medicare tax is 1.45% which is 7.65% on a $50K salary thats $3,825 from $44K is still $41K, still well over $10K of the $30K you cited. Most DSs in the US include the cost of whatever the DSs basic healthcare option as part of the package and benefits, so at least for the employee there is no requirement of further health care deductions.
I hear where you are coming from your tax rate in the UK is 40% but a US DTs tax rate is about half that.

@Amusing User Name

The "golden rule" is just another axiom.
Living "the good life" is just an aspiration.
There is no use in arguing taste.
The Economist is a magazine.

None of the former mitigate the latter, it is a fallacy non sequitur.

wrldtrvlr123
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Re: Is this really a career anymore? Economists, can you ans

Post by wrldtrvlr123 »

PsyGuy wrote:
> @Joe30
>
> Take home salary would be $44K on a $50K salary, the $39K is after the allowance
> you cited for accommodation. It would probably be higher since it only accounts
> for the standard exemption and standard deductions as well as the educator expense
> deduction. You can find the guidance here:
> http://www.irs.com/articles/2016-federa ... deductions
> http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc458.html
> The math is pretty simple, so you may well be surprised. The total tax isn't $11K
> its 11% about $5633.75.
=====================
Really? No payroll deductions other than federal tax (SS, medicare, etc)? Most people would love to see $44K net salary on $50K.

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