The International Schools Review Forum

...due to the issues with USA's new president elect?

Like him or hate him, Trump is coming out of the gate behaving offensively towards the Chinese government.

I was pretty enthusiastic about finding a good situation for my family and working at a good school in China, but now I don't know. Just wondering how realistic my concerns are.

Curious what you think would happen being an American in China with Trump as president

Nobody cares. I don't think the Chinese PLA will come after you nor would the average Chinese. People are too busy making a living back on the mainland.

b12r wrote:
> Curious what you think would happen being an American in China with Trump
> as president

I'm wondering whether people are concerned about a war. There are people here in the US who are. I'm wondering whether people in China are seeing similar concerns.

I have yet to meet ANYone who is concerned over a war. I mean if you are getting your news from CNN or MSNBC then maybe they say it.

b12r wrote:
> I have yet to meet ANYone who is concerned over a war. I mean if you are
> getting your news from CNN or MSNBC then maybe they say it.

Are you in China? Did anyone talk about his telephoning Tsai?

I understand that I may be way off-base. That's why I'm asking, to get a more realistic sense. The people I talk politics with are very concerned about his recent gaffes, but I know it may be something they are inflating. I'm hoping this forum can act as a sounding board.

Many Chinese dont have access to the same level of global news that westerners do. Most of them arent in the dark though, and while you will find the handful of political types, many mainland Chinese really dont care. For them its more entertainment than a cause of real concern, its something they have a laugh over, and then its on to more important things.

Actually, right now it seems like the majority of Chinese people who want to talk about it (they bring it up) are of the opinion that Trump being president is great. I don't know if they are aware of his phone call with the president of TW or not. Often things like that are kept out of the Chinese media, so maybe they don't know. It will take a lot more to really shake up things.

I'm not so convinced those folks will be pleased when Trump is actually in power.

If you're concerned about how things will play out at the level of government to government, that's hard to say. The biggest anti-American sentiment in China was after the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 according to friends of mine who have lived in China for years and years. The Chinese accused the US of bombing the embassy deliberately and killing innocent journalists. The US said it was a mistake and said they were sorry. The real story that came out years later is interesting and show both governments were lying.

The only negative outcome I could possibly see for teachers is, if there is on going issues between China and the US and it gets into a tit-for-tat situation, I could see the Chinese not renewing visas/work permits for US citizens, so schools would have to hire more Canadians / Brits / Australians / etc. It probably won't happen, the two countries have too much vested in each other. But, as far as I know, it did recently happen to South Africans.

Still, after Brexit it might be easier for US citizens to get jobs in Europe, so swings and roundabouts I guess :-).

The biggest concern I would have taking a job in China would be getting paid in RMB. The announcement of a Fed rate hike with more planned in the coming year means alot of cash will flow out of China and into the US causing the Dollar to gain value against the RMB.

China and the US have used visa fees against one another. US residents pay USD$140 for a visa where other countries fees are as low as USD$30. Its probable something like that could happen again or change and make it even worse. I strongly doubt China would expel US expats, anything they did would be met by the US, and the reality is that there are fewer US expats in China than there are Chinese in the US. The recent NGO management rule in China is an example, China will give US expats grief, but they wont directly close the borders.

The RMB issue cant be helped the regulations going into effect will require all salaries (with few exceptions) be paid in RMB for foreign nationals.

These are all interesting points. Just the sorts of insights I was hoping for. Thank you all.

There are a few concerns you should have about China; one is nationalism and its impact on international schools; the government recently announced it wants to promote Chinese education over the international variety, some provinces enforce a rule that Chinese students who do not hold a foreign passport cannot attend international school. Sometimes this rule is enforced and sometimes not. Of course, the Chinese govt could actually put a slowdown or limit on work visas for Americans if Trump upsets them enough. It's bad news to be paid in RMB. and you need to carefully consider highly polluted areas like Beijing which has just been put on a red alert for five days as the air quality is so bad that schools are closed.

If any of you knew for certain which way the RMB (or any other currency) was going to go, then you're wasting your talents in teaching, and should instead be pulling in 7 figures+ at a trading house.

All of the stuff here is just guesses, and when the common man is making 'predictions' like this they're often priced into the market already anyway.

Joe30, you are correct. But also keep in mind that exchange rates are likely to have the biggest impact on how much teacher working in China can save. Based on large macro trends that take place over the course of years, it's a pretty good bet to say that the RMB will continue to devalue vs the USD. Just this week XI JiPing announced that they are abandoning their 6.5% economic growth target. Devaluing the currency even further will help to stay closer to the new target. As was stated earlier, the US has also begun to raise interest rates, and will most likely continue to do so, which will also make the USD stronger. These things are not yet priced in, but will continue to effect all of us working in China. I've been in China for four years, and even though I keep going up the salary scale, I haven't been able to send more money home due to the RMBs continuing weakness vs the dollar.

joe30 wrote:
> If any of you knew for certain which way the RMB (or any other currency) was going
> to go, then you're wasting your talents in teaching, and should instead be pulling
> in 7 figures+ at a trading house.
>
> All of the stuff here is just guesses, and when the common man is making 'predictions'
> like this they're often priced into the market already anyway.