Thailand politics: anything to worry about?

[LondonChick]

I'm about to start a new life in Thailand with my family and am a little worried about some of the news. I know that there is constant low-level unrest and frequent protests that usually don't come to anything too serious (still, 90 dead last spring...) but I wonder how safe it really is?

Anyone here has experience of living in Thailand? Is it likely to kick off in a big way or do you think it is just minor unrest? Could the elections on July 3rd turn nasty?

I'm not too worried but still keen to hear what others think...

(I'm off to Bangkok, by the way)

[durianfan]

I've lived in Bangkok for the past 3 years; the protests last year were pretty much outside my apartment building. The "red shirts" are (at least in my view) usually just a minor annoyance but last year they successfully closed Bangkok's shopping district for 3 months but the escalation that followed was easily avoided. Curfews were in effect for a few weeks and there were about 2 weeks where it was very unwise to go to certain areas of the city. But I always felt safe. The red shirts are not gone, however. They are kind of like the sleeping giant that could awaken at anytime and cause mayhem. Just avoid them the best you can; you should be fine.

[buffalofan]

I lived in Bangkok during the 2006 military coup. There were tanks in the streets and the city was pretty much shutdown. I did not feel that I was in any sort of danger at any time. Foreigners are definitely not targeted during times of political unrest there. I would not hesitate for a second if I was offered a job there, you will have a fantastic experience.

The only thing that would concern me is if a certain aging very powerful person who cannot be named leaves this world. When this eventually occurs, all bets are off. Things could get very 'interesting', to say the least.

[Nemo.]

Hi I also lived in Thailand through the initial military coup, and as long as the current King is alive Thailand will be stable enough. Except for the south where islamic terrorists are fighting for an Islamic state.

If you know Thai people well enough, they will tell you about their worries if the current king passes on. This is generally a no no topic in Thailand as you can be jailed for criticising the royal family, however even though the current King is universally loved and respected the next in line is criticised secretly. He is very anti foreigner and the royal family can exert political power. The current King is very wise and wants a proper democracy. The new king? It is discussed how much the princess is loved and admired but Thai law doesn't recognise female succession. The rumour I was told that when the prince inherits the crown he won't survive long. that could herald a civil war/serious unrest although if the princess is allowed to become queen then srabillity would return. It was suggested gimme by one friend that the prince would have a helicopter "accident" shortly after becoming king. National mourning followed by a change in law so the princess would become queen. In Thailand rumours are in place of politicalmdiscussion in such banned topics!

In reality I would not want to be in Thailand when the King passes on. You will find most expats really mean it when thy say long live the king!

[tao]

I was in country when the protests were on. It was dangerous but confined to a few general areas.

There will always be an element of instability in Thailand. Elections are due next month in July and things could very well get messy depending how everything plays out.

I would also be weary about a certain somebody in Thailand. When "elvis" leaves the building the shit will hit the fan 100%. This will be sooner than later it seems.

Be concerned but do not be deterred. Thailand is an amazing country and you will enjoy it.

[markholmes]

More Buddy Holly than Elvis, I would have thought.

[LondonChick]

Thanks everyone. I'm keeping an anxious eye on the Bangkok Post every day. I'm starting to understand what's going on, a little anyway. We'll see what happens around July 3rd...
I guess London got bombed the week I found a job here and I was a bit nervous to say the least. I had to go past one of the scenes of wreckage every day on the tube, you could still see the burnt underground walls. Stuff can happen anywhere, sadly.
I'm so happy to go to Bangkok right now and I won't focus on the possible negatives, as it's not a good way to live. I'll just stay aware of the situation just in case. I'm guessing good international schools are pretty good at getting their staff out when things really go wrong?

[ExpatGuy]

No one is going to save you if the proverbial beep hits the fan.
Just be prepared. The world is on fire right now so it really doesnt matter where you go - something will be happening

I would be cautious of moving into high towers because of potential earthquakes and most buildings have zero earthquake preparedness planning.

As far as the political situation, learn some Thai, respect the King, and stay completely out of political discussions. Also bring a certified copy of your background check, all degrees and transcripts, and current drivers license.

When you get to Bangkok, immediately get a Thai drivers license (even if you dont plan on driving) so that you have a Thai identification card to show at checkpoints, etc. Also make a copy of your passport and visa page, shrink, laminate and place it in your wallet and carry it with you along with your Thai identification card. This way if there are any problems later with civil unrest you will easily be able to move through a checkpoint and will be treated very well.

[LondonChick]

Expatguy, I thought you were being a little alarmist, but then I thought about what you said a bit more and I think you are right, one is never too cautious. It doesn't cost much to have the basic precautions in place.

I have a couple of good (Thai) contacts in Bangkok, which might help too, as well as very reliable friends in Cambodia.

Thanks for your wise advice.

[Nemo.]

[quote="LondonChick"]Expatguy, I thought you were being a little alarmist, but then I thought about what you said a bit more and I think you are right, one is never too cautious. It doesn't cost much to have the basic precautions in place.

I have a couple of good (Thai) contacts in Bangkok, which might help too, as well as very reliable friends in Cambodia.

Thanks for your wise advice.[/quote]

When living in the third world always have an exit plan. Libya was once a sure fire safe bet! Syria, Egypt, bahran....

Emergency money in cash and offshore always handy. Know the alternative exits and with kids I would be more careful. I never felt unsafe in Thailand, but I don't have kids. With kids I would be nervous.

Btw per wiki leaks the king has dementia and the crown prince is HIV positive. Saying such a thing is 30 years in jail. A Swedish man got 75 years for spraying paint on 3 pics of the king. He was pardoned and thrown out as per usual with current king. If the wikeleak guy went to Thailand .....

[LondonChick]

Well, I like to be aware of what's going on around me, just like I like to learn the language etc. But I know what you mean, Psyguy, I won't let it spoil my time there.

Nemo, I'm not sure I like the distinction between 'third world' and 'developed' when it comes to safety. Look at Japan; not exactly 'third world', yet things went wrong fairly quickly there. I know it was mainly a natural disaster, but with a couple of bizarre decisions were made too. And look at New Orleans! It didn't much look like a bright developed land anymore once it'd been abandoned and looted after the hurricane.

I've lived in a few places, but the most dangerous one by far was in the UK, in a very 'hot' suburd. Yet it isn't a third world country...