jschott wrote:
> mysharona wrote:
> > We're starting our next phase with $1,500,000 and hope that the 4% rule
> > holds true.
>
> The 4% rule was created when bonds in a 60/40 portfolio actually yielded something.
> 2.5 to 3% is the new normal--if you're lucky.

The author of the rule, Bill Bengen, raised it to 4.5% in 2006 and then to 5% in 2020 assuming a 50/50 split. Total returns determine the safe withdrawal rate not just bond yields.
Historically, the actual safe withdrawal rate ranged from 7 to 13%, so 4% is a fairly conservative guideline to start with. I could perhaps see going to 3% for an early retiree, but those arguing for lower assume some sort of financial dystopia in the future which is not really possible to plan around in any case in my opinion.

A nice round $1 million for me. With a 4% withdrawal rate that will give me 40,000 annually in addition to my modest social security income.

I was hired by a school in China for this year, but was unable to get a visa in my country of residence. I even had the PU letter but they would not process it. By the time October rolled around I saw the writing on the wall and asked to be released from my contract so I still had time to search for a job for the 2021-22 school year. Luckily I was able to find a job at a great school outside of China, but I still lost out on most of my income for 2020-21. I think most staff at the school were able to make it in, but it is still a crapshoot. If you are not in China currently, I would be very hesitant at accepting a position from abroad. In addition, I hear the situation for dependents is even worse with some teachers being separated from their families since the beginning of the year.

Out of curiosity what the typical pay ratio between teachers and assistant principals at most international schools? I imagine it varies but was wondering if something like 40% more is typical.

Make sure your new school knows your situation and is willing to sponsor you for a new visa if needed. If you are leaving in the middle of the year there’s a chance your old school may not sign off on your release and you may need to leave Kuwait and re-enter. The old school might even withhold salary to cover recruiting costs as well.

Keep in mind Kuwait is a country under rule of wasta as much as law, so make sure your new school is willing to go to bat for you if the old one decides to create trouble.

Tin Shui Wai? Outside of places that are mostly public housing or remote fishing towns there is nothing that approaches affordable in HK. There definitely are no expat enclaves that are not crazy expensive.

These days the HK side near the border is cheaper than Shekou/Futian, and there is no way you want to deal with border control every single day anyway.

The moral of the story is that you need to directly contact your local Exit-Entry Bureau and SAFEA office to find out exactly what applies to you and what you need to do. There is so much misinformation online and enough regional variation that you could find yourself in some serious hot water if you make any assumptions without confirming them first.

By the way the office in Guangzhou (020-12345) had an English line so that wasn’t a barrier. In addition, the woman who answered was friendly and patient with my questions. Way more helpful than my interactions with government offices back in the US at least!

Since I am moving to the region, and I am curious about how this all works, I actually called the Entry and Exit Administration Office of the Guangzhou Public Security Bureau and they confirmed what I thought.

They stated that if you lose your job without another lined up you need to apply for a Stay Permit which would be good for 7-30 days depending on various factors. They said this is necessary because the purpose of your stay has changed and therfore your old residence permit is no longer valid. Then if during that time you find a new employer you can then apply for a new work and residence permit. In any case, you can't just hangout unemployed in Guangzhou for months and expect things to go well.

Also, I asked about transferring a work permit and they said it is best if the new employer initiated the process through SAFEA, but apparently this is fairly complicated and did not want to go over specfic details over the phone and suggested I visit a local district office for help directly relevant to my case.

See here: http://www.gz.gov.cn/guangzhouinternati ... rocedures/

One relevant line: "4. Foreign nationals who are terminating their studies or employment in Guangzhou for any reason should surrender their residence permit and obtain the relevant visa immediately."

Obviously this is Guangzhou's take on it, but rest assured other municiplaities have their own rules.

By official law once a work permit is canceled the residence permit should be canceled in 10 days. However, like many things in China enforcement is lax and can vary from province to province. This results in many different interpretations but 30 days is often given as an acceptable time frame even though it is not official. Could someone get away with longer? Quite possibly, and I’m sure some have, but you are at the mercy of the system (Or the various levels of guanxi of the parties involved) when you try to get your new work permit.

Of course having an openly hostile former employer who would be more than happy to draw attention to you will only will make things more difficult. Even light research will reveal multitudes of horror stories of those who tried to play fast and loose with the system In China and got burned. China is cracking down on a lot of the cowboy enterprises these days and often the best option is to do everything by the book.

The residence permit is also tied to your work permit. If you quit your job you have 30 days to transfer your residence permit and get a new work permit from your new employer or get a tourist visa (which may not even be an option now) if you want to stay in country. There is also a 30-day humanitarian visa you can get to help with this. This is probably why the new school is giving you 30 days to make this happen.

In normal times this is not usually a big deal and is doable even if the old employer hates you. However, at the moment the various Plan B options (tourist visa, making a visa run to HK) are not viable so if you hit a snag your only choice might be to leave the country and start over. As such, jumping ship is a risky maneuver right now, so I would be really careful before making the leap.

OP, you might be jumping out of the frying pan into the fire on this one. There is no guarantee the potential new school will stick to their word, on classes or housing or otherwise, either.

Keep in mind they are knowingly and willingly poaching you from another school in a time of crisis. This speaks volumes about their attitude towards respecting contracts including the one the are offering you in an attempt to lure you away.

Nothing you posted about your current school sounds like a leave in the middle of the year dealbreaker to me given the circumstances of this year. I know the pain of having classes switched at the last moment, but as others have mentioned this is not unusual for IE, and this year in particular will be crazy as schools are desperate to fill slots.

I don’t know the full circumstances you are in, but personally I would stick with the devil I know (unless things are truly intolerable) and stick it out for at least a year rather than roll the dice on a new place in the middle of a pandemic.

t_rock wrote:
> As far as I'm concerned, there's nothing more hypocritical than many of
> these international educators who drone on ad nauseum about social justice,
> BLM, etc., and then take jobs in China simply because of the money on
> offer. If you would sell out your main values and beliefs for 30 pieces of
> silver that easily then that is truly pathetic.
>
> China wants to be isolated. I say let them.

I seem to recall you posting a few months ago about a job you took in China for this year. Seems like that deal broke down due to COVID and now you want to virtue signal? Sheesh.

Back on topic, the current trend in China is worrisome. As a US citizen the escalation of tensions and recent closings of consulates does not bode well. Adding 20 hours of propaganda is not going to help either. That said, the international teaching sector (particularly English teaching) in China has been rather sketchy for quite some time. Although I don’t necessarily agree with their approach I can’t blame them for wanting to clean things up.

There is no shortage of these schools in China many of which pay reasonably well too. Not the top tier ones of course but if you don’t mind working with a 100% Chinese student population this is an option. The pandemic is making everything uncertain and particularly when it comes to China, but it still would be a big step up from where Lebanon seems to be heading now.

The IRS is providing a waiver this year for the FEIE for you which you probably qualify.

https://rsmus.com/what-we-do/services/t ... -excl.html